Pathways for Overcoming Commitment Problems in the Transition from Intrastate Conflict to Peace: A Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Abstract
This article examines why some intrastate conflicts that end with comprehensive peace agreements lead to lasting peace, while others relapse into conflict. It focuses on the design and implementation of civil war peace agreements by formally evaluating a theoretical framework grounded in the bargaining model of war and credible commitment mechanisms. Using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, the study explores the conditions that facilitate successful transitions from war to peace. Five explanatory conditions are identified: power-sharing, transitional justice, transitional reform, international assistance, and the implementation process. The analysis compares thirty-four peace agreement cases between 1989 and 2012, drawing on data from numerous sources. The findings underscore the significance of fearreducing, cost-increasing, and confidence-building mechanisms, suggesting the need to reassess existing theoretical frameworks. The study also compares five typical and three individually irrelevant cases to test the properties that link specific sufficient configurations to the outcome.
Keywords
civil war, peace agreements, post-conflict transitions, peacebuilding, fs/QCA
Citation
Kumek, İ., Duran, H., & Çiçek, A. E. 2026. Pathways for Overcoming Commitment Problems in the Transition from Intrastate Conflict to Peace: A Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. Uluslararası İlişkiler, Advanced Online Publication, 8 July 2026: 1-24. DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.1972444
Affiliations
İbrahim Kumek Ph.D., Department of Political Science and International Relations, İstanbul University, İstanbul E-Mail: [email protected] Orcid: 0000-0003-2096-159X
Hasan Duran Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, İstanbul University, İstanbul E-Mail: [email protected] Orcid: 0000-0001-5328-9918
Aylin Ece Çiçek Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, İstanbul University, İstanbul E-Mail: [email protected] Orcid: 0000-0002-9606-509X