Structural Characteristics and Political Correlates of Public Opinion on Turkish Engagement with the Syrian Civil War

Abstract

This study conducts a comprehensive quantitative examination of Turkish public opinion about its foreign and security policies, focusing on policy towards the Syrian civil war. By linking scholarly literature to policy, the paper analyzes structural characteristics and political correlates of foreign policy attitudes and perceptions of using military force in the Turkish public. The empirical analysis reveals that (i) increased soft power activism reduces support for policies favoring military interventions; (ii) the type of militarism affects support for a policy that resorts to cross-border military operations; (iii) foreign policy attitudes towards the war vary depending on the internationalization type; (iv) immigration policies shape support for foreign policy concerning the country-of-origin of immigrants affected by the conflict; (v) public support for foreign policy actions is contingent upon the level of knowledge on political matters; and (vi) on the alliance preferences and the self-image. Utilizing a binary logistic regression model, the study employs 2019 Turkish Foreign Policy Trends data, encompassing a wide range of foreign policy indicators on structural characteristics and political correlates of foreign policy attitudes in Turkey and a comprehensive set of indicators on the Syrian conflict. The findings contribute to the theoretical and practical understanding of the problem under examination, with implications for international relations and foreign policy policymaking.

Keywords

public opinion, foreign policy, military interventionism, Turkey, Syria

Citation

Ebru Canan-Sokullu, Mustafa Aydın, and Özgehan Şenyuva, “Structural Characteristics and Political Correlates of Public Opinion on Turkish Engagement with the Syrian Civil War”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Advanced Online Publication, 16 September 2025, pp. 1–22. DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.1768825

Affiliations

Ebru CANAN-SOKULLU Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Bahçeşehir University, İstanbul E-Mail: [email protected] Orcid: 0000-0003-1182-4112

Mustafa AYDIN Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Kadir Has University, İstanbul E-Mail: [email protected] Orcid: 0000-0002-4029-6681

Özgehan ŞENYUVA Professor, Department of International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Ankara E-Mail: [email protected] Orcid: 0000-0003-2433-0736